Hurricane Sandy & Cyclone Nilam – “Our cousins would be visiting soon”.

In the video section of my blog you will find a time lapse video of Hurricane Sandy. Around 2:14 minutes into the video, the lights of New York go out. Till then it is business as usual. Single mindedly producing GHG by consuming humongous amount of electricity produced by coal / oil fired thermal plants.

An Article by Ryan Patterson, USCAN Operations Director says -Both Presidential campaigns were put on pause this week as Hurricane Sandy converged with extraneous weather patterns and battered the East Coast with unprecedented force, prompting National Wildlife Federation climate scientist Amanda Staudt to describe the effects of climate change as akin to ‘putting hurricanes on steroids.’ This fatal event contributes even more evidence to the annals of climate change data, and some media have connected the storm to climate disruption, such as Bloomberg Businessweek, which ran a front page article titled It’s Global Warming, Stupid and CNN, which ran a story called Experts Warn of Superstorm Era to Come. Unfortunately, top politicians have not followed suit and have failed to publically connect the dots to climate change, which is dispiriting at best and unethical at worst.

With less than a week to Election Day, it is important to think about how we found ourselves in the position where key decision-makers are not substantially addressing climate, despite broad efforts by climate change activists. I will argue here that a band of carbon billionaires have effectively influenced public opinion and national and state legislation on climate change using a three-pronged strategy that funds think tanks, Astroturf campaigns, and legislative outreach…..(Source: Climate Action Network).

In 1988, UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) came together to create the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has become the pre-eminent global source for scientific information relating to climate change.  The main international instrument on this subject, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992.  And its Kyoto Protocol, which sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, was adopted in 1997. In 2002, the World Summit on Sustainable Development was held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from 26 August to 4 September 2002, to take stock of achievements, challenges and new issues arising since the 1992 Earth Summit. It was an “implementation” Summit, designed to turn the goals, promises and commitments of Agenda 21 into concrete, tangible actions. 2005 – 2014 is  the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development  and Agenda 21 is a comprehensive plan of action to be taken globally, nationally and locally by organizations of the United Nations System, Governments, and Major Groups in every area in which human impacts on the environment.

In 2012 with only 1 year 2 months to 2014, my Blog article What is Agenda 21 written to help propagate the great UN vision got a sum total of 5 HITS between 12th November 2011 to 6th March 2012.

Not that I did not try pasting the link to the article in my other blogs, especially the ones I title as Green Business Ideas. I doubt if even the kith and kin of CM Sheila Dikshit of New Delhi and Ex Mayor Shraddha Yadav of Mumbai, who were the signatories of the C40 Cities ( Urban Development Rules: How C40 -City rules can make a difference for India.) have even heard of these wonderful United Nations driven goals, leave alone the common people in my Country.

I have a decent 99 HITS to the C40 article, taking my efforts to spread sensible living to a mere 104 persons in total of 6 Billion people in this planet. I hope the UNFCCC has been doing better. Given it has been at it since 1988.

While Noble Rabindra Nath Tagore wrote – Jodi tor dak sune ….( A superb poem which tells you to walk alone towards the path of truth, irrespective of the following you get ). Unfortunately the time of the Mahathma Gandhi; who did walk alone; has changed.

Truth is what the Corporates tell you, through their selected mouth piece Politicians and media Barons. But Mother Nature has this silly habit of knocking down the tall claims made by tiny self-centred human. Every time. So when both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama chose not to mention the “C” word, Hurricane Sandy felt offended and came visiting and sent cousin Hurricane Nilam to India, to remind the Annex II countries not to feel to smug about the disaster hitting the most uncooperative Annex I country in the Kyoto Protocol.

In my (4 HITS received till date, clearly underscores how unimportant a news it is compared to Hollywood / Bollywood actors affairs, which get a media frenzy) article Sustainable Development is urgent : IPCC’s special report on Climate risks I presented the SEREX report a few points I would highlight below -

EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY

1.Exposure and vulnerability are dynamic, varying across temporal and spatial scales, and depend on economic, social, geographic, demographic, cultural, institutional, governance, and environmental factors (high confidence).

2.Settlement patterns, urbanization, and changes in socio-economic conditions have all influenced observed trends in exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes (high confidence).

DISASTER LOSSES
1.Economic losses from weather and climate-related disasters have increased, but with large spatial and inter-annual variability (high confidence, based on high agreement, medium evidence).

2.Economic, including insured, disaster losses associated with weather, climate, and geophysical events are higher in developed countries. Fatality rates and economic losses expressed as a proportion of GDP are higher in developing countries (high confidence).

3.Increasing exposure of people and economic assets has been the major cause of the long-term increases in economic losses from weather and climate-related disasters (high confidence).

4.Long-term trends in economic disaster losses adjusted for wealth and
population increases have not been attributed to climate change, but a role for climate change has not been excluded (medium evidence, high agreement).

The report touches on many aspects in great detail and was published as the 4th Assessment Report of IPCC last year. I would want people to pause at the digit 4th. The 5th report is on its way.

Wonder how much that would help the common persons who are lead as sheep to the slaughter house by the willy Politician – Corporate out to make a quick buck. After all disasters do help in the business of rebuilding. What fun! Too bad, loss of life and limb happens. But statistics show far greater people die in their sleep don’t they?

Exposure and Vulnerability; Disaster losses. one can almost feel the despair and frustration of all those who have burnt the proverbial mid-night oil to compile a Report, detailed and accurate as humanly possible to help the Leaders of this World to address Climate change with Vision and Statesmanship.

$1 trillion in infra at any cost, Singh tells his 77: Prime minister Manmohan Singh on Thursday told the 77 ministers in his cabinet the government’s target of $1 trillion investments in infrastructure over the next five years “must be met at any cost”.That translates into Rs53.71 lakh crore, or more than Rs10 lakh crore a year, over the 12th Plan period of 2012-17…….“To do so, we will have to overcome the constraints that currently deter or slow down this investment.” The prime minister listed fuel supply arrangements, security and environmental clearances and financing difficulties among the constraints and said the growing gap between demand and supply of energy had emerged as a major roadblock to development.
I can almost hear the chain saws gnawing at the last remaining forest cover, to reach for the coal beneath. “Development at any cost” the new Indian Mantra.

The Stern Review states that climate change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen, presenting a unique challenge for economics.The Review provides prescriptions including environmental taxes to minimise the economic and social disruptions. The Stern Review’s main conclusion is that the benefits of strong, early action on climate change far outweigh the costs of not acting.The Review points to the potential impacts of climate change on water resources, food production, health, and the environment. According to the Review, without action, the overall costs of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global gross domestic product (GDP) each year, now and forever. Including a wider range of risks and impacts could increase this to 20% of GDP or more. The Review proposes that one percent of global GDP per annum is required to be invested in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change. In June 2008, Stern increased the estimate for the annual cost of achieving stabilisation between 500 and 550 ppm CO₂e to 2% of GDP to account for faster than expected climate change.

It is said that unless we stop and reverse the Global temperature rise by 2017, we shall be locked into a high carbon growth for the next 50 years with Climate related disasters and its related abatement cost dogging the civilization, with millions in life and property is lost.

Yet, the World Leaders blinded by myopic vision, site economic gurus who unfortunately are born of a flawed economic system, who go back to the time when that flawed system was in its nascent stage and showed false growth and prosperity. By this I mean the dawn of the Industrial Revolution. The vast untapped resources were not yet exploited and thus the impact of “pollution” an unknown term then. And it had not manifested itself with the terrible consequences which we see now. While the Revolution is singularly responsible for the growth of Human understanding in every field, including the impacts of human induced climate change, applying the same economic measures and datum now is nothing short of foolhardy in the present circumstances.

Now is the time for us to search for leaders who would be able to stand tall and proud as Gandhi. Leaders not afraid to walk the path away from the beaten track. And should that be a problem then we still can walk the path  the Mahatma showed in his concept of a Sustainable Village or Gram Swaraj.

Visionaries are not born every day and civilization which forget the thoughts of visionaries do so at their own peril. While it is easy to catalogue the devastation of a Katrina or a Sandy or a Nilam, what is of profound importance now is that the United Nations must through its good offices bring around the USA, Canada, Japan and others who talk of not ratifying the KP-2 or any similar or better economic idea which might just be able to hold off the cousins of Sandy & Katrina from visiting too soon.

Perhaps UNFCCC-Doha may after all see the birth of a new Economic order born out of respect for the Ecology.

Related articles

• VIDEO: Cyclone Nilam hits Indian coast (bbc.co.uk)
• Sandy and Nilam: Why do these names stand for! (arindammohapatra.wordpress.com)
• Global Warming Meme Powers Hurricane Coverage (weeklyintercept.blogspot.com)

 

Small Cars Must Rule ! Curb on diesel cars need implementation

In a recent leading News Paper I happened to read that the automobile companies in India have requested the Government to re-think on putting an extra excise tax on Diesel passenger vehicles, namely SUV‘s and other high to very high-end Cars using diesel. Their argument is its going to affect their economy, and moreover its just a tiny 1.56% of the total diesel driven automobiles!

 

I confess at the start that I am no Ivy league MBA and can’t crunch statistics like the big corporate boys do. But in my dim-wit brain I need someone to explain me that if the diesel cars construed only 1.5%  of the total, why the petition? And I start to think what is this argument of 1.5% ? A trillion can also have 1.5% of it and a million can also have a 1.5% but the formers tiny percent can be the whole of 100% + of the latter! So as someone had said long ago – ‘statistics is the best way to lie and win an argument’ holds true. The brilliant and well meaning automobile manufacturing managers  perhaps have the well-being of the poor employees in their mind when they attempt to  protect the assembly line from closing down. So I will not hold it against them. But by increasing the demand of passenger cars which would be belching fossil fuel fumes especially more carbon–Di–oxide  is causing a disservice to the Nation. (http://www.diffen.com/difference/Diesel_vs_Petrol.)

However, I must  advocate for Clean technologies as it is the only way to abate Climate Change. I would also ask the big diesel car advocates to read the Stern Review and the SREX report of IPCC.  It is time that corporates and governments but most importantly the Citizens of the country start to understand that we have a very limited time to turn the tide against climate change. For we enter the Orange line for danger from 2017!

Diesel is understood to give more mileage and more efficient that petrol. But in India all may not be using the high-end diesel which is taking care of NOx which is a cause of concern from the pollution angle. Moreover once the public see that the price of fuel is cheaper the demand for diesel cars would shoot up. The price of diesel is cheaper in India because the Government offers a bigger subsidy on it than Petrol. As long as the public keep on demanding for “cheaper fuel” for their very big and costly cars, the automakers can not be put to fault. And as long as the Government of the day continues to buy the corporates argument, the public can not be held responsible. It is a wonder how easily in any argument we create demarcations – Government – Public – Automakers and forget that all are at the end citizens of a responsible Nation which should be at the fore-front to abate climate change.

All nations are facing the problem of balancing between the centuries old “industrial revolution” life-style which hyper-jumped on the back of fossil fuel to device a cleaner and more sustainable life-style without compromising on the creäture comfort we all have grown up with.  This can only happen if for once  these very best of India, the brilliant Corporate minds along with learned Citizens from various fields come together and devise a solution. Each in his/her personal capacity must break free from the chains of the company’s profit graph and attempt to create a level playing field in which bio-fuel driven or solar-driven or hybrid cars can create a viable alternative to the popular and practical cars of today.

And having done that, they should learn from the real experiences on the city roads of India and devise a plan to create superb SMALL passenger cars! And through their glib marketing and advertisement pamper the ego of the feudal minded ‘upper class’ that small is the new ‘BIG’!

Moreover, the super rich who buy big cars & suv’s with the argument that their large family would travel in comfort when they holiday usually have cars for each individual member or when holidaying they fly to Europe or other exotic destinations, leaving their large cars behind.

Let us see how is the Developed nations fairing in this – the EU’s voluntary agreements with motor manufacturers and the introduction of colour-coded CO2 labels in showrooms, the UK Government has introduced financial measures to favour cars with lower CO2 emissions.

Since March 2001 the annual Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) rate for new cars has been determined by their CO2 emission figure and the type of fuel used. This banding is linked to the voluntary colour coded CO2 A – G labelling scheme. Band ‘G’ was recently introduced but only applies to new cars registered on or after 23 March 2006. VED discounts are available for alternatively fuelled cars, e.g. hybrids, gas and biofuels.

Since 2002 company car drivers have been taxed according to their vehicle’s CO2 emissions and fuel type, again with diesel vehicles paying a tax penalty over petrol vehicles with similar CO2 emissions. Tax discounts are available for drivers choosing bio-fuel and hybrid electric vehicles.

On the fuels side, a Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation has been introduced which requires 5% of road fuels to come from a renewable source by 2010. This may be sold as a separate fuel (e.g. ‘E85′) or blended into normal diesel and petrol at low percentages (5% or less).

The European Union has now agreed a mandatory CO2 target for car manufactures. Under this legislation the average emissions of a manufacture’s vehicles sold in Europe will have to be below 130 grams of CO2 per kilometre by 2015.

In my opinion Small cars must rule ! Because -

It is easier to engineer a smaller and lighter vehicle to run at a decent  speed through alternate Eco-friendly fuel. And even petrol driven small cars can be more economical mileage wise, so demand for diesel car would reduce.

Almost 60% of the commuters are lone passengers who drive or are driven around on a daily basis so large cars belching diesel fumes are not really required.

Moreover although the diesel cars would be a percentage of the above 60% , a small statistical number but a HUGE difference in the abatement of Co2e. Because that small number of cars need to fill gas, read diesel – which need not be that small in measure.

Lastly, big SUV’s and large passenger cars  are not only big in size, they are heavier too. As any one who has plied on roads frequented by heavy vehicles would know – the roads wear out faster !

And what do we lay our roads with – Bitumen! A derivative of the most feared substance in terms of Climate Change –  A black viscous mixture of hydrocarbons obtained naturally or as a residue from petroleum distillation!

The articles that started the arguments (http://epaper.dnaindia.com/epapermain.aspx?pgNo=15&edcode=820009&eddate=2012-01-20) ( http://www.outlookindia.com/printarticle.aspx?279625 )

Related articles

• Londoners ‘shun diesel models’ (autonetinsurance.co.uk)
• Choosing A New Custom Wheels: Gas Efficiency Over Comfort Level (mykidcan.org)
• Diesel VS Hybrid, which is the better choice? (greenpacks.org)
• The Luxury Hybrid Automobile: Future or Fallacy? (luxurysociety.com)

 

Trade & Climate Change: Clean Development Mechanism in SME Sector can reduce exposure and vulnerability to weather and climate events.

The Small & Medium Enterprise and Business in many Countries play a vital role in the growth of the Nation. It is a fountain of creative ideas of which many have made it big over time, World over. It is one of the most dynamic part of a countries growth as it more often than not linked directly at the grass root level.

As per the Small & Medium Business Development Chamber of India;

The Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) play a vital role for the growth of Indian economy by contributing 45% of industrial output, 40% of exports, employing 60 million people, create 1.3 million jobs every year and produce more than 8000 quality products for the Indian and international markets. SME’s Contribution towards GDP in 2011 was 17% which is expected to increase to 22% by 2012. There are approximately 30 million MSME Units in India and 12 million persons are expected to join the workforce in the next 3 years. SMEs are the fountain head of several innovations in manufacturing and service sectors, the major link in the supply chain to corporate and the PSUs. The Indian market is growing rapidly and Indian entrepreneurs are making remarkable progress in various Industries like Manufacturing, Precision Engineering Design, Food Processing, Pharmaceutical, Textile & Garments, Retail, IT and ITES, Agro and Service sector.

If one just looks at the scale, it could be well understood the potential it has in terms of creating a sea-change in the quest for reduction of GHG and thereby reduce the Green House Effect, provided it is given the support and attention it deserves.

The UNFCCC COP-17 meet at Durban has underscored the need to move at a faster pace in the Worlds effort to abate Global Warming & Climate. The IPCC‘s  report examines how disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change can reduce exposure and vulnerability to weather and climate events and thus reduce disaster risk, as well as increase resilience to the risks that cannot be eliminated.

The IPCC’s special report states under DISASTER LOSSES which would come about due to extreme weather events caused by Global Warming,  four major points;

1.Economic losses from weather and climate-related disasters have increased, but with large spatial and inter-annual variability (high confidence, based on high agreement, medium evidence).

2.Economic, including insured, disaster losses associated with weather, climate, and geophysical events 4 are higher in developed countries. Fatality rates and economic losses expressed as a proportion of GDP are higher in developing countries (high confidence).

3.Increasing exposure of people and economic assets has been the major cause of the long-term increases in economic losses from weather and climate-related disasters (high confidence).

4.Long-term trends in economic disaster losses adjusted for wealth and

population increases have not been attributed to climate change, but a role for climate change has not been excluded (medium evidence, high agreement).

Although it is argued that large corporations have a greater responsibility to respond to the challenges of Global warming it must be noted that they are in many cases moving positively in that direction. It can be safely argued that for large corporations, changing the process is time consuming principally due to its size and no quick turn around is possible. Further they require much more assistance both technically and financially to do so viably.

But the problem of Climate Change being of humongous proportion, the effort on ground as of now need more participation. This is where, I would like to point the direction towards SME’s. Typically in India, the SME sector can be further subdivided as:

Manufacturing Enterprises – Investment in Plant & Machinery

Description                                                                       USD($)

Micro Enterprises                                                upto $ 62,500

Small Enterprises                                         $ 62,500 & upto $ 1.25 million

Medium Enterprises                  above $ 1.25 million & upto $ 2.5 million

Service Enterprises – Investment in Equipments

Description                                                                      USD($)

Micro Enterprises                                                  upto $ 25,000

Small Enterprises                            above $ 25,000 & upto $ 0.5 million

Medium Enterprises                   above $ 0.5 million & upto $ 1.5 million

In India, the SMEs are spread thin. Wherever clustering approach has been developed, and organizations like UNIDO have brought technology transfer and support to clusters, they have seen to embark on an improved profitability and competitiveness route. There are more than 8 million SMEs in India today – small companies that churn out auto components or electronic parts, garments, etc. – making manufacturing the biggest engine for job creation in our economy, and contribute to 60 per cent of India’s exports. About 40 million workers are employed by the manufacturing sector, as per the National Sample Survey 2000.

 These are big numbers, with the latent potential to grow bigger, and signify one thing clearly: the SME sector can play a crucial role in the economic growth of India. Conversely it also means that it has the potential to spew enormous amount of GHG( Green House Gas). Moreover the SME sector, which by default is set up in the fringe districts of any city, faces acute electricity and water shortages. Sometimes both and at times mostly electricity. This hampers productivity. And also creates space for using diesel power generating system which are a prime source for GHG emission. This, in the present Global concern towards Climate change, would act as an impediment for favorable negotiations for India post 2012. These negotiations would begin for framing the new convention which would take over form the present Climate Change Treaty, the world follows – the Kyoto Protocol.  The second crediting period of the KP would be over by 2015 and as the world is teetering towards Global Warming of enormous proportions, the rewards and punishment for helping or not helping in its mitigation would be huge. In the last meet of the 194 member states of the UN at Durban, a $ 100 Billion per year Green Climate Fund by  A.D 2020 has been agreed upon.

 As globalization is increasing and competition is becoming more vigorous there is increased  awareness amongst all stake holders that Climate Change is a potential risk to business and its mitigation is an absolute necessity. The risks have already been mentioned in the paragraphs above. Now to succeed in a competitive environment, which is also in the midst of a Global Economic slowdown, the manufacturing sector has to adopt some best practices and embrace some new age tools. One of the key differentiators can be Sustainable Design & Renewable Energy Technology and its wide adoption by Indian SMEs, which can play a significant part in enhancing their competitiveness on the world stage.

 Further India is one of the emerging economy on whom the world is focusing along with other BASIC Nations (Brazil; South Africa; India; China) to support the climate change initiative taken up in the recently concluded UNFCCC’s  COP-17 at Durban South Africa; it is imperative for the Nation to look into and address the GHG abatement potential across the SME sector. Else it would be put into disadvantage in future negotiations set to take place for a new framework convention beyond 2015, when the Kyoto Protocol part -II is set to end. These negotiations are set to take place from 2012 onwards and culminate towards Rio+20, the UNFCCC’s COP 18, scheduled in Brazil this year. India has however the National Action Plan for Climate Change( NAPCC) in place which has Eight Mission programs, and some of them are operational as of now. Amongst them the National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency(NMEEE) covering Nine  industrial sectors must be adopted by the SME sector too and its scope increased to include more sectors.

 Now what would be the process and advantage for the SME to look at the Energy Efficient Building & Renewable Energy Technology, otherwise known as Green of Clean technology? For starters, one must adopt the guidelines given under the two Green Building rating system prevalent in India. The National GRIHA (Green Rating  for Integrated Habitat Assessment) and the IGBC ( Indian Green Building Council ). These are guided by the prestigious The Energy and Resource Institute (TERI) and the later by the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII). Under the IGBC we have guidelines both for retro-fit as well as new industries , namely the ” Green Co” and the “Green Factory” rating system.  As to the advantages, primer companies such as Wipro, Godrej, Larsen & Toubro, GE, JSW and many others industrial sectors  have adopted the systems across its various rating system and have found favorable variations in there CAPEX & OPEX, but what is most important in this discussion is that there is a significant reduction to the GHG, as much as 20%.

 Having said that, to make the SME sector adapt to new age technology, the various associations for SME should petition both State & Central Government to create favorable Credit policy for them.  The SME sector mostly does not seek any grant or subsidy and industrious enough to pull through with its own resources, however Credit for expansion or setting up a new venture for this sector is hard to come by, principally because most do not have the wherewithal to afford big consultation or credit rating companies, which could facilitate and guide them to become Credit worthy in terms of banking rules. There needs to be some thought on this.

Courtesy: For data on SME’s – Rajiv Sodhi in http://www.i4donline.net  &; the SME Chamber of India www.smechamberofindia.com

 Related articles

• IPCC’s special report on Climate risks -IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (oyeta936.wordpress.com)
• IPCC: Humans cause weather extremes (junkscience.com)
• Report Links Extreme Weather to Climate Change (indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com)
• Flood victims ‘fear climate change’ (confused.com)
• Global warming: IPCC set to release report on managing risks of extreme weather events related to climate change (summitcountyvoice.com)
• The Latest Report From The IPCC Is Seeking To Rationalize The Failure Of Global Multi-Decadal Climate Models To Skillfully Predict Extreme Events In The Next Few Decades (pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com)
• IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Stoat] (scienceblogs.com)
• Climate Change: A guide to the IPCC’s take on extreme events (yubanet.com)

• Michael P. Nelson: Bridging the Climate Change Generation Gap (huffingtonpost.com)
• Climate Change: What it means to Nepal? (dineshpanday.wordpress.com)
• Frog Song May Help Understand Climate Change (chimalaya.org)
• Climate change is here. (thedailymail.net)

 

Renewable Energy – Empowering Women & Saving Forests.(Redux)

During the recently concluded UNFCCC , COP 17 at Durban, that Climate change is a clear and present danger with Humankind pushing the limits of the Earth’s ability to cope with man-made pollution, was well documented by each Nation which spoke at the Plenary. And it was underscored with a grim report by the IPCC -4th assessment draft.

The year 2017 from where Human Economic progress will be trapped into a high carbon growth, which would compound and complicate the situation into a series of worst case situations year on year, each year causing great socio-economic suffering. The Stern Review details it for those who want to know more.

It is also mentioned, the worst of Climate change, caused due to unprecedented pollution the Human race produced in its quest to find a “safe – healthy – prosperous” life style; would affect those who neither had/has the means nor the thought process to live such life-styles; the indigenous people in the Brazilian rain-forest, the ethnic groups in wild and still  beautiful  and untouched Africa and the “poor” Nations and  economically weaker class of the societies.

While it is true that when one measures “development”  through the all-pervasive Capitalist Economic theory the World follows in its trade; the definition of poor would be a Man or Nation with no “money”, “cash” or whatever the experts like to call it. However today, one must pause and think on the terms “Rich” & “Poor” in the Climate change context.

Fresh Air, Clean & Sparkling Rivers, Beautiful Blue Sky, Lush Green Meadows, rich and varied Flora & Fauna are (strangely! – they don’t have the money to pay for such nice things, one might say ) with the POOR and UNDEVELOPED or UNDERDEVELOPED Nations, States, Provinces.

And what is most striking is that the RICH just don’t have it around them anymore. They need “treated & bottled”  Water, “filtered and air-conditioned” Air;  Zoos, which one needs to drive down ( provided one is in town/ else a planed tour itinerary during holiday season ) and an “all expenses paid” incentive ticket  to fly to these very underdeveloped/undeveloped  provinces & Countries to have a glimpse of the Blue Sky. Even virgin snow is hard to come by as by morning layer of sooth from Car exhaust ruins its colour.

It’s perhaps time that the UN & IMF, World Bank and those snooty Credit rating Companies, redefine which are the Bankable and Rich Nations.

Having said that, let the present so-called “Rich & Developed Nations“, be pressured by the right thinking citizens of those countries to save the very things they all want – Safe, Healthy & Prosperous life-style. And we just have SIX years  left to move the clock back-wards to meet that.

So what is it, in my opinion that needed to be done ? Simple, help the poor with their livelihood . Each day thousands of Women & Girl Child walk miles to fetch potable water & fire-wood. This happens in almost all South Asian & African Countries. It perhaps true for parts of South America too.

Many sea /river societies in Africa find sustenance through trade in Fish. The big and fresh catch is usually traded with the agents of Multi Nationals for pittance. The smaller catch is then sold in the local market, where it’s “smoked”  over burning wood. This practice over the years has decimated the forest around these societies. And many such examples have been documented across nations. Soon even these Least Developed Nations and societies would have no tree cover, being poor and economically weak finding the right solution would not be  easy. It would be next to impossible and the first of Climate Change Refugees would be getting ready for exodus, creating further aggravation.

But among all these gloom, there is hope. A ray of hope and a whiff of opportunity – Renewable Energy; namely Solar & Wind.

With the Green Climate Fund, a nascent reality; the LDC’s must create Program of Activities which is similar to what is now on going in India. TERI the think- tank institute headed by Dr. Rajendra Pachauri himself, has a program called “lighting a billion lives”. Here Solar powered lanterns are given to villages across India.

Earlier on India has/had a program under which Bio-gas which is produced from cattle manure ( Gobar -gas ) and piped  into homes for cooking. Now this is a finite resource because it is quantity dependent. It is therefore successfully implemented in villages which have cattle rearing as their primary business. In the State of Gujrat, India; its a great success, as AMUL created a business revolution around dairy and animal husbandry is a roaring business there.  However not every village can have cattle which would be producing to fulfill the requirements of energy for the entire village. Therefore the use of RE mostly Solar, or a Wind + Solar Hybrid could be the solution for each and every village. Not only in India but in Africa &  other countries too. By devising a Solar Tree ( roof top if applicable or possible  ) and drawing cables to each and every house hold in the village, electricity could be provided. Add cheap yet sturdy induction stoves and you are giving these societies a chance.

Why induction stove one may ask. Simple, as per the report from the Department of Energy United States, an induction stove is nearly 90% efficient in sending the heat where it is required the most – to cook the food. Whereas in a butane / propane , the gas we find in LPG cylinders, only 40% is efficiently used for the purpose of cooking. The rest heats up the stove, pan and the air around the flame.

Now considering that 1 kiloliter of LPG = 7.4 KWHr ( kilo watt hour) of energy and 1 kilogram of LPG = 12.68KWHr. And BTU ( British Thermal Unit ) a measure to calculate heat. Lets look at an example given below to support my idea of a “Solar Stove”.

Domestic gas in India contains – 14.2 kilogram = 180.05 KWh of energy

BTU/Hr = 180.05 x 3412= 614330.60 BTU/Hr

Gas heating efficiency is 40% only. Therefore 40% of 614330.60  =  245732 BTU/hr is actual usage from one LPG cylinder.

Induction heating efficiency is 90%.

Say  a SPV of 2kWp x 5 solar hour  = 10kWh, of energy. ( In India we have an average of  5 hour of good Sun-shine ) which can be stored.

Now if we use an induction stove of 2.2Kw rating and draw the solar energy

Induction of 2.2 kW= to a gas burner rated at almost 16,000 BTU/hour; ( Refer:Induction Cooking:Selecting a Unit )

Therefore total energy received per hour = 10 /2.2 = 4.5455 x 16000 = 72,728 BTU / Hour is actual usage.

Now any expert would tell you 72,7288 BTU is a lot of cooking heat with a very nominal drawing of energy.

The rule of thumb from gas-energy values: induction-element kW times 7185 equals gas in BTU/hour.

This is just with a 2.2 Kw induction stove, naturally a higher rated induction hob would provide far more energy.

The least-expensive 30-inch (four-element) induction cooktop has:

• a 1.3-kW small element (between 9,000 and 9,500 BTU/hour),
• two elements of 1.85 kW each (well over 13,000 BTU/hour), and
• one element of 2.4 kW (over 17,000 BTU/hour).

The least-expensive 36-inch (five-element) induction cooktop has:

• a 1.2-kW small element (8,500 BTU/hour),
• a medium element of 1.8 kW (13,000 BTU/hour),
• a larger element of 2.2 kW (16,000 BTU/hour),
• and two elements of 2.4 kW (over 17,000 BTU/hour).

The very highest-power gas burner to be found in the residential market is 22,000 BTU/hour, and that’s a sort of freak monster, whereas a 3.6-kW and 3.7-kW element–which is around 26,000 BTU/hour of gas!–is found in many induction cooktops.

From the above calculation one can see that at village level where food is only cooked for sustenance, the energy used by each house hold would be at a minimum. If the Solar panel & stove is sized properly as per the societal needs in each society  across Nations, two most important changes would perhaps take place.

1. The Girl child & Woman would no more need to chop down trees for fire-wood, thus help heal the immediate environment.

2. No smoke from fossil fuel would be emitted into the atmosphere.

So this concept if implemented rightly, might just begin to turn the tide as Worldwide some 2.7 billion people rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating, and 1.4 billion have no access to electricity.

So what’s with the electricity? Well if the 1.4 Billion were never introduced to the  oil and coal based electricity we would to Earth that much good. And now that we know the effective use of a new kind of Solar Stove; with cooking time reduced and need a minimum, may be some of that Solar power from the solar tree could light up a LED lamp in the village home.

And if we bring it to the cities, with the price of commercial LPG at Rupees 1600 / cylinder of 19kg. We may find some economics in this too, while reducing the subsidy burden for the Government.

Are the signatory of Kyoto  Protocol listening?

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Green Purchasing – The New Mantra

 

Green Purchasing, also known as Environmentally Preferable Purchasing (EPP) has gained more importance with the publishing of interim report by IPCC on Climate Change and its negative effects; which has more or less ratified the already known scientific findings that Climate Change is for real and it presents a Clear & Present Danger.

To abate the incoming disaster, every sector must act now ! Because the dateline for getting trapped unto high carbon economy forever, leading to untold misery is – 2017. That is just 6 years.

To put it simply, it would not be possible for business to shift into newer low carbon technology and getting used to it unless we start now. Just as a baby needs to be at least 5-6 years old to be able to walk & talk fluent, so does any nascent business. Mindset needs to be firmed & directions gets clearer over passage of time.

If say in 2012 we put up a Cement / Steel Plant with low -efficiency technology, it would still be spewing noxious GHG for the next 40 years before one can look at it as old and think of renovation. Now magnify that into 100′s of industries of all shape and size and a trap leading to disaster is not to difficult to imagine.

Of the many urgent Do’s we have – lets deal with “Green Purchasing”. Although it ideally defines purchases by the Governments & Corporates, I like to see the “Governments ” & ” Corporates” as men and women working as a collective. This  collective when broken down into individuals become “citizen” of a Nation or putting it simply part of another collective – “the common man”.

Therefore when the Government & Corporates buy green, the common man too starts buying green.

So what is green purchasing? Simply put it’s one of the three cornerstones of sustainable purchasing, where the other two cornerstones are sound social policy and economic soundness. However, whereas economic soundness insures that the overall decision is sound from a life-cycle cost and corporate sustainability perspective, and whereas social policy addresses your need to be a responsible corporate citizen when it comes to human rights and welfare, green purchasing addresses the environmental impact of our buying decision.

One might think that buying green is the easiest criterion but it is, in fact, the most challenging criterion! An organic local food product or an energy-efficient appliance may get the label of green, but only when its supply chain, storage and other criteria of actual usage are taken into account. A cold-stored food which is made available in the off-season, however locally produced has already consumed ton of energy to stay fresh! Similarly an energy-efficient appliance if left on continuously even when not required, does consume energy. Which in effect is getting wasted.

Environment Preferable Purchasing – green purchasing – is quite simple if the three R’s- Renew, Recycle & Reuse; are applied to each and every purchase. Its difficult at first, just as a baby trying to walk for the first time…but eventually every human gets a hang of it.

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Sustainable Development is urgent : IPCC’s special report on Climate risks

The Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation ( SREX ) has been submitted as an advance report before a full comprehensive report on effects of Global Warming is published in 2012.

There are many approaches and pathways to a sustainable and resilient future.  However, limits to resilience are faced when thresholds or tipping points associated with social and/or natural systems are exceeded, posing severe challenges to adaptation. This Guidance Note refines the guidance provided to support the IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Reports.

OBSERVATIONS OF EXPOSURE, VULNERABILITY, CLIMATE EXTREMES, IMPACTS, AND DISASTER LOSSES:

This report integrates perspectives from several historically distinct research communities studying climate science, climate impacts, adaptation to climate change, and disaster risk management. Each community brings different viewpoints, vocabularies, approaches, and goals, and all provide important insights into the status of the knowledge base and its gaps. Many of the key assessment findings come from the interfaces among these communities.

The assessment concerns the interaction of climatic, environmental, and human factors that can lead to impacts and disasters, options for managing the risks posed by impacts and disasters, and the important role that non-climatic factors play in determining impacts. The character and severity of impacts from climate extremes depend not only on the extremes themselves but also on exposure and vulnerability. In this report, adverse impacts are considered disasters when they produce widespread damage and cause severe alterations in the normal
functioning of communities or societies. Climate extremes, exposure, and vulnerability are influenced by a wide range of factors, including anthropogenic climate change, natural climate variability, and socioeconomic development.

The report examines how disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change can reduce exposure and vulnerability to weather and climate events and thus reduce disaster risk, as well as increase resilience to the risks that cannot be eliminated.

Other important processes are largely outside the scope of this report, including the influence of development on greenhouse gas emissions and anthropogenic climate change, and the potential for mitigation of anthropogenic climate change.

The following terms have been used  by IPCC to indicate the assessed likelihood:
Term* Likelihood of the outcome -
Virtually certain 99-100% probability; Very likely 90-100% probability;
Likely 66-100% probability; About as likely as not 33 to 66% probability;
Unlikely 0-33% probability; Very unlikely 0-10% probability;
Exceptionally unlikely 0-1% probability
* Additional terms that were used in limited circumstances in the AR4 (extremely likely – 95- 100% probability, more likely than not – >50-100% probability, and extremely unlikely – 0-5% probability) may also be used when appropriate.

EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY
1.Exposure and vulnerability are dynamic, varying across temporal and spatial scales, and depend on economic, social, geographic, demographic, cultural, institutional, governance, and environmental factors (high confidence).

2.Settlement patterns, urbanization, and changes in socioeconomic conditions have all influenced observed trends in exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes (high confidence).

DISASTER LOSSES
1.Economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters have increased, but with large spatial and interannual variability (high confidence, based on high agreement, medium evidence).

2.Economic, including insured, disaster losses associated with weather, climate, and geophysical events4 are higher in developed countries. Fatality rates and economic losses expressed as a proportion of GDP are higher in developing countries (high confidence).

3.Increasing exposure of people and economic assets has been the major cause of the long-term increases in economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters (high confidence).

4.Long-term trends in economic disaster losses adjusted for wealth and
population increases have not been attributed to climate change, but a role for climate change has not been excluded (medium evidence, high agreement).

CLIMATE EXTREMES AND IMPACTS
There is evidence from observations gathered since 1950 of change in some extremes.

1.There has been an overall decrease in the number of cold days and nights,
and an overall increase in the number of warm days and nights, on the global scale, i.e., for most land areas with sufficient data. ( very likely )

2.These changes have also occurred at the continental scale in North America, Europe, and Australia. ( likely )

3.There is a warming trend in daily temperature extremes in much of Asia, Africa and South America. ( medium confidence to low confidence )

4. In many (but not all) regions over the globe with sufficient data, the length or number of warm spells, or heat waves, has increased. ( medium confidence )

5.There have been statistically significant trends in the number of heavy precipitation events in some regions. More of these regions have experienced increases than decreases, although there are strong regional and subregional variations in these trends. ( likely )

6. In any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases in tropical
cyclone activity (i.e., intensity, frequency, duration), after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities. ( low confidence )

7.There has been a poleward shift in the main Northern and Southern Hemisphere extra-tropical storm tracks ( likely )

8. Some regions of the world have experienced more intense and longer droughts, in particular in southern Europe and West Africa, but in some regions droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter, e.g., in central North America and northwestern Australia. ( medium confidence )

9. Climate-driven observed changes in the magnitude and frequency of floods at regional scales ( limited to medium evidence; low agreement to low confidence)

10.There has been an increase in extreme coastal high water related to increases in mean sea level. ( likely)

HUMAN IMPACTS AND DISASTER LOSSES
1.Extreme events will have greater impacts on sectors with closer links to climate, such as water, agriculture and food security, forestry, health, and tourism. (high confidence)

2. In many regions, the main drivers for future increases in economic losses due to some climate extremes will be socioeconomic in nature (medium confidence, based on medium agreement, limited evidence).

3.Increases in exposure will result in higher direct economic losses from tropical cyclones. Losses will also depend on future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity (high confidence).

4. Disasters associated with climate extremes influence population mobility and relocation, affecting host and origin communities (medium agreement, medium evidence).

DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: PAST EXPERIENCE WITH CLIMATE EXTREMES

1.The severity of the impacts of climate extremes depends strongly on the level of the exposure and vulnerability to these extremes (high confidence).

2. Trends in exposure and vulnerability are major drivers of changes in disaster risk (high confidence).

3. Development practice, policy, and outcomes are critical to shaping disaster risk, which may be increased by shortcomings in development (high confidence)

4. Data on disasters and disaster risk reduction are lacking at the local level, which can constrain improvements in local vulnerability reduction (high agreement, medium evidence).

5. Inequalities influence local coping and adaptive capacity, and pose disaster risk management and adaptation challenges from the local to national levels (high agreement,robust evidence).

6. Humanitarian relief is often required when disaster risk reduction measures are absent or inadequate (high agreement, robust evidence).

7. Post-disaster recovery and reconstruction provide an opportunity for reducing weather and climate-related disaster risk and for improving adaptive capacity (high agreement, robust evidence).

8. Risk sharing and transfer mechanisms at local, national, regional, and global scales can increase resilience to climate extremes (medium confidence).

9. Attention to the temporal and spatial dynamics of exposure and vulnerability is particularly important given that the design and implementation of adaptation and disaster risk management strategies and policies can reduce risk in the short-term, but may increase exposure and vulnerability over the longer term (high agreement, medium evidence).

10. National systems are at the core of countries’ capacity to meet the challenges of observed and projected trends in exposure, vulnerability, and weather and climate extremes (high agreement, robust evidence).

11. Closer integration of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation, along with the incorporation of both into local, subnational, national, and international development policies and practices, could provide benefits at all scales (high agreement, medium evidence).

FUTURE CLIMATE EXTREMES, IMPACTS, AND DISASTER LOSSES
Future changes in exposure, vulnerability, and climate extremes resulting from natural climate variability, anthropogenic climate change, and socioeconomic development can alter the impacts of climate extremes on natural and human systems and the potential for disasters.

Models project substantial warming in temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century.

It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur in the 21st century on the global scale. It is very likely that the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells, or heat waves, will increase over most land areas.

Heavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones are likely to increase with continued warming. Average tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely to increase, although increases may not occur in all ocean basins. It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged.

There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evaporate-transpiration. Projected precipitation and temperature changes imply possible changes in floods, although overall there is low confidence in projections of changes in fluvial floods.

It is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels in the future. There is high confidence that locations currently experiencing adverse impacts such as coastal erosion and inundation will continue to do so in the future due to increasing sea levels, all other contributing factors being equal.

There is high confidence that changes in heat waves, glacial retreat and/or permafrost degradation will affect high mountain phenomena such as slope instabilities, movements of mass, and glacial lake outburst floods. There is also high confidence that changes in heavy precipitation will affect landslides in some regions.

There is low confidence in projections of changes in large-scale patterns of natural climate variability.

MANAGING CHANGING RISKS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES AND DISASTERS

1.Measures that provide benefits under current climate and a range of future climate change scenarios, called low-regrets measures, are available starting points for addressing projected trends in exposure, vulnerability, and climate extremes. They have the potential to offer benefits now and lay the foundation for addressing projected changes (high agreement, medium evidence).

2. Effective risk management generally involves a portfolio of actions to reduce and transfer risk and to respond to events and disasters, as opposed to a singular focus on any one action or type of action (high confidence).

3. Multi-hazard risk management approaches provide opportunities to reduce complex and compound hazards (high agreement, robust evidence).

4. Opportunities exist to create synergies in international finance for disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change, but these have not yet been fully realized (high confidence).

5. Stronger efforts at the international level do not necessarily lead to substantive and rapid results at the local level (high confidence).

6. Integration of local knowledge with additional scientific and technical knowledge can improve disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation (high agreement, robust evidence).

7. Appropriate and timely risk communication is critical for effective adaptation and disaster risk management (high confidence).

8. An iterative process of monitoring, research, evaluation, learning, and innovation can reduce disaster risk and promote adaptive management in the context of climate extremes (high agreement, robust evidence).

IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

A. Actions that range from incremental steps to transformational changes are essential for reducing risk from climate extremes (high agreement, robust evidence).

B. Social, economic, and environmental sustainability can be enhanced by disaster risk management and adaptation approaches. A prerequisite for sustainability in the context of climate change is addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability, including the structural inequalities that create and sustain poverty and constrain access to resources.  (medium agreement, robust evidence).

C. The most effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction actions are those that offer development benefits in the relatively near term, as well as reductions in vulnerability over the longer-term(high agreement, medium evidence).

D. Progress towards resilient and sustainable development in the context of changing climate extremes can benefit from questioning assumptions and paradigms and stimulating innovation to encourage new patterns of response (medium agreement, robust evidence).

E. The interactions among climate change mitigation, adaptation, and disaster risk management may have a major influence on resilient and sustainable pathways (high agreement, limited evidence).

It is to be noted that direct comparisons between assessment of uncertainties in findings in this report and those in the IPCC AR4 are difficult if not impossible, because of the application of the revised guidance note on uncertainties, as well as the availability of new information, improved scientific understanding, continued analyses of data and models,and specific differences in methodologies applied in the assessed studies. For some extremes, different aspects have been
assessed and therefore a direct comparison would be inappropriate.

Meaning of Terms used in the report -

Climate Change: A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcing, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use

Climate Extreme (extreme weather or climate event): The occurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends of the range of observed values of the variable.

Exposure: The presence of people, livelihoods, environmental services and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets, in places that could be adversely affected.

Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected.

Disaster: Severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic, or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy critical human needs and that may require external support for recovery.

Disaster Risk: The likelihood over a specified time period of severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic, or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy critical human needs
and that may require external support for recovery.

Disaster Risk Management: Processes for designing, implementing, and evaluating strategies, policies, and measures to improve the understanding of disaster risk, foster disaster risk reduction and transfer, and promote continuous improvement in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery practices, with the explicit purpose of increasing human security, well-being,
quality of life, resilience, and sustainable development.

Adaptation: In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate.

Resilience: The ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or recover from the effects of a hazardous event in a timely and efficient manner, including through ensuring the preservation, restoration, or improvement of its essential basic structures and functions.

Transformation: The altering of fundamental attributes of a system (including value systems; regulatory, legislative, or bureaucratic regimes; financial institutions; and technological or biological systems).

Courtesy: IPCC SREX Summary for Policymakers; 18 November 2011.

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What is Agenda 21

The environmental movement might be said to have begun centuries ago as a response to industrialization. As universal concern about the healthy and sustainable use of the planet and its resources continued to grow, the UN, in 1972, convened the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, in Stockholm.

Picking up on the energy generated by the Conference, the General Assembly, in December 1972, established the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), which leads the efforts of the United Nations family on behalf of the global environment.  Its current priorities are environmental aspects of disasters and conflicts, ecosystem management, environmental governance, harmful substances, resource efficiency, and climate change.

In 1988, UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) came together to create the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has become the pre-eminent global source for scientific information relating to climate change.  The main international instrument on this subject, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992.  And its Kyoto Protocol, which sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, was adopted in 1997.

In 2002, the World Summit on Sustainable Development was held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from 26 August to 4 September 2002, to take stock of achievements, challenges and new issues arising since the 1992 Earth Summit. It was an “implementation” Summit, designed to turn the goals, promises and commitments of Agenda 21 into concrete, tangible actions.

2005 -2014 is  the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development  and Agenda 21 is a comprehensive plan of action to be taken globally, nationally and locally by organizations of the United Nations System, Governments, and Major Groups in every area in which human impacts on the environment.

The Green Economy Report, to be published in late 2010, uses economic analysis and modeling  approaches to demonstrate that greening the economy across a range of sectors can drive economic recovery and growth and lead to future prosperity and job creation, while at the same time addressing social inequalities and environmental challenges. Supported by UNEP’s expert guidance, countries can make sound policy, technology, and investment choices that reduce emissions and drive sustainable social and economic development. From assisting in the deployment and scaling up of cutting-edge clean technologies to helping remove financial and other barriers to transforming energy generation, UNEP helps developing countries to capitalize on the transition to the Green Economy.

Over the last quarter of a century, the world economy has quadrupled, benefiting hundreds of millions of people. In contrast, however, 60% of the world’s major ecosystem goods and services that underpin livelihoods have been degraded or used unsustainably. Indeed, this is because the economic growth of recent decades has been accomplished mainly through drawing down natural resources, without allowing stocks to regenerate, and through allowing widespread ecosystem degradation and loss.

For instance, today only 20% of commercial fish stocks, mostly of low priced species, are underexploited, 52% are fully exploited with no further room for expansion, about 20% are overexploited and 8% are depleted. Water is becoming scarce and water stress is projected to increase with water supply satisfying only 60% of world demand in 20 years; agriculture saw increasing yields primarily due to the use of chemical fertilizers, which have reduced soil quality and failed to curb the growing trend of deforestation – remaining at 13 million hectares  of forest per year in 1990-2005. Ecological scarcities are therefore seriously affecting the entire gamut of economic sectors, which are the bedrock of human food supply (fisheries, agriculture, freshwater, forestry) and a critical source of livelihoods for the poor. And ecological scarcity and social inequity are definitional signatures of an economy which is very far from being “green”.

Meanwhile, for the first time in history, more than half of the world population lives in urban areas. Cities now account for 75% of energy consumption and 75% of carbon emissions. Rising and related problems of congestion, pollution, and poorly provisioned services affect the productivity and health of all, but fall particularly hard on the urban poor. With approximately 50% of the global population now living in emerging economies that are rapidly urbanizing and will experience rising income and purchasing power over the next years – and a tremendous expansion in urban infrastructure – the need for smart city planning is paramount.

Note: This article has been created from various UN publications.

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